TECH Signal 585
The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Probably Not Real
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Engineers frequently invoke the Dunning-Kruger effect to explain poor self-assessment and skill gaps on teams; if the effect is actually a data artifact, those explanations and any interventions based on them rest on shaky ground. This is carried by only one feed, so corroboration is thin.
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Two papers published in 2016 and 2017 in the journal Numeracy by Dr. Ed Nuhfer and colleagues demonstrated that the Dunning-Kruger effect can be replicated using random data, suggesting it is a statistical mirage.
Dr. Dunning himself clarified that the effect was intended to be about all people's tendency to overestimate their abilities in areas where they are less competent, not about 'dumb people' specifically.
The original 1999 study compared people's predicted scores to their actual scores, and the apparent effect may arise from the mathematical properties of that comparison rather than from a real cognitive bias.
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